version 8.0 
log using presfig.log, replace
 #delimit ;

*     ***************************************************************** *;
*     ***************************************************************** *;
*       File-Name:      presfig.do                                      *;
*       Date:           5/18/05                                         *;
*       Author:         MRG                                             *;
*       Purpose:        Do-file to create figures showing the marginal  *;
*                       effect of temporally-proximate presidential     *;
*                       elections as the number of candidates changes   *;
*                       for AJPS paper. To get figures to come up,      *;
*                       remove asterixes next to the graph commands in  *;
*                       the code below. See notes after figures to see  *;
*                       whether the code creates 95% or 90% confidence  *;
*                       intervals.                                      *;
*       Input File:     legislative_newp.dta                            *;
*       Output File:    presfig.log                                     *;
*       Data Output:    None                                            *;
*       Previous file:                                                  *;
*       Machine:        Office                                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

set mem 10m;
set matsize 150;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       First, get figures using Amorim Neto and Cox data               *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

use c:\ajps\coxappend.dta;

set obs 100;

regress enpv proximit enpres proxpres eneth lnml lmleneth if drop==0, robust;

generate JH=((_n-1)/10);

replace JH=. if _n>60;

matrix b=e(b); 
matrix V=e(V); 
scalar b1=b[1,1]; 
scalar b2=b[1,2];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1]; 
scalar varb2=V[2,2]; 
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3]; 
scalar covb2b3=V[2,3];
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*         Create full range of marginal effect                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conb=b1+b3*JH if _n<60;
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*           Create full range of standard errors                        *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*JH^2+2*covb1b3*JH)  if _n<60; 
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               Generate confidence intervals at the 95% level          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen a=1.684*conse; 
gen top=conb+a; 
gen bottom=conb-a;
set textsize 100;

*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(2.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 , labsize(2.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(col(1) order(1 2) label(1 "Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections") label(2 "95% Confidence Interval") 
                  label(3 " "))
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-5 5 -10 -15, lcolor(white))  
            title("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections", size(4))
            subtitle(" " "Dependent Variable: Effective Number of Electoral Parties" " ", size(3))
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(3)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(3))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white));  
        
*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(3.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 , labsize(3.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(off)
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-8 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6 8 10, lcolor(white))  
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(4)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(4))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white));
        
*translate @Graph c:\ajps\cox.wmf;
        
       
*graph export  c:\diss\ajps.eps, replace;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Conclusion:                                                     *;
*       At 95\% level: Temporally-proximate presidential elections      *;
*       reduce the number of electoral parties when the number of       *;
*       presidential candidates is less than 2.4.  They have no effect  *;
*       when presidential candidates>2.4                                *;
*       At 90% level: Temporally-proximate presidential elections       *;
*       reduce the number of electoral parties when the number of       *;
*       presidential candidates is less than 2.5.  They have no effect  *;
*       when presidentialcandidates>2.4.                                *;
*       To get 95% level change to 2.021.                               *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;





*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                       Now let us turn to our data                     *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

clear;

use c:\ajps\legislative_newp.dta;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                    Relabel and Define Variables                       *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

label var country  "countryname";
label var newdem "first election as new democracy";
label var countrynumber "countrynumber";
label var year "year";
label var regime "regime as of 31 December of given year 0=democracy 1=dictatorship";
label var regime_leg "regime type at time of legislative election 0 = democracy 1=dictatorship";
label var legelec "legislative election";
label var preselec "presidential election";
label var eighties "election in 1980s closest to 1985";
label var old "elections in countries that did not transition to democracy in 1990s";
label var nineties "elections in 1990s closest to 1995";
label var proximity1 "proximity - continuous";
label var proximity2 "proximity - dichotomous";
label var enpp "parliamentary parties - uncorrected";
label var enpp1 "parliamentary parties - corrected";
label var enep "electoral parties - uncorrected";
label var enep1 "electoral parties - corrected";
label var enpres "effective number of presidential candidates";
label var seats "assembly size";
label var districts "number of electoral districts";
label var avemag "average district magnitude";
label var medmag "median district magnitude";
label var upperseats "number of uppertier seats";
label var uppertier "percentage of uppertier seats";
label var eneg "effective number of ethnic groups  fearon";

describe;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Would like to drop countries that have no recognizable parties  *;
*       since I am interested in determining the number of parties.     *;
*       Drop Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau,      *;
*       Lebanon (at least no votes by party), Kyrgzstan.                *;
*       Since I am interested in competitive elections I drop the       *;
*       elections that occurred in Colombia between 1958 and 1970 due   *;
*       to a constitutional agreement to share power between the        *;
*       conservative and liberal parties.                               *;
*       Also drop the Congolese elections of 1963.  Although there were *;
*       multiple parties permitted, all candidates ran on a single list.*;
*       Thus, there was no actual competition in this election.         *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop if countrynumber==163;
drop if countrynumber==165;
drop if countrynumber==197;
drop if countrynumber==189;
drop if countrynumber==146;
drop if countrynumber==198;
drop if countrynumber==167;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1958;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1960;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1962;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1964;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1966;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1968;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1970;
drop if countrynumber==12 & year==1963;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Generate interaction variables ready for regressions.           *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

generate logmag=ln(avemag);
generate logmag_eneg = logmag*eneg;
generate proximity1_enpres = proximity1*enpres;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Need to drop elections that use a fused vote in legislative     *;
*       and presidential elections.                                     *;
*       Drop Bolivia, Uruguay, Honduras up to and including the 1993    *;
*       elections, Guatemala elections in 1990 (fused vote with         *;
*       national district), Dominican Republic elections in 1966, 1970, *;
*       1974 and 1986.                                                  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop if countrynumber==67;
drop if countrynumber==76;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1957;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1971;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1985;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1989;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1993;
drop if countrynumber==57 & year==1990;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1966;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1970;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1974;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1986;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Drop those countries where enep1 others are greater than 15% of *;
*       the vote or seats.                                              *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop if enep_others>15 & enep_others<100;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                      Figure for 1980s                                 *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
 
regress enep1 proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg  if eighties==1, robust;

generate JH=((_n-1)/10);

replace JH=. if _n>60;

matrix b=e(b); 
matrix V=e(V); 
scalar b1=b[1,1]; 
scalar b2=b[1,2];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1]; 
scalar varb2=V[2,2]; 
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3]; 
scalar covb2b3=V[2,3];
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*         Create full range of marginal effect                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conb=b1+b3*JH if _n<60;
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*           Create full range of standard errors                        *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*JH^2+2*covb1b3*JH)  if _n<60; 
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               Generate confidence intervals at the 95% level          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen a=1.692*conse; 
gen top=conb+a; 
gen bottom=conb-a;
set textsize 100;

*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(2.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 , labsize(2.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(col(1) order(1 2) label(1 "Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections") label(2 "95% Confidence Interval") 
                  label(3 " "))
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-5 5 -10 -15, lcolor(white))  
            title("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections", size(4))
            subtitle(" " "Dependent Variable: Effective Number of Electoral Parties" " ", size(3))
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(3)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(3))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(3.5)) 
            ylabel(-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0, labsize(3.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(off)
            yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 2, lcolor(white))  
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(4)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(4))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white));  
        
*translate @Graph c:\ajps\eighties.wmf;
        
       
*graph export  c:\ajps\eighties.eps, replace;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Conclusion:                                                     *;
*       At 95% level: Temporally-proximate presidential elections       *;
*       always reduce the number of electoral parties                   *;
*       At 90% level: Temporally-proximate presidential elections       *;
*       always reduce the number of electoral parties.                  *;
*       To change to 95% level change to 2.035.                         *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop JH conb conse a top bottom;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                      Figure for 1990s                                 *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
 
regress enep1 proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg  if nineties==1, robust;

generate JH=((_n-1)/10);

replace JH=. if _n>60;

matrix b=e(b); 
matrix V=e(V); 
scalar b1=b[1,1]; 
scalar b2=b[1,2];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1]; 
scalar varb2=V[2,2]; 
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3]; 
scalar covb2b3=V[2,3];
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*         Create full range of marginal effect                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conb=b1+b3*JH if _n<60;
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*           Create full range of standard errors                        *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*JH^2+2*covb1b3*JH)  if _n<60; 
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               Generate confidence intervals at the 95% level          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen a=1.670*conse; 
gen top=conb+a; 
gen bottom=conb-a;
set textsize 100;

*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(2.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 , labsize(2.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(col(1) order(1 2) label(1 "Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections") label(2 "95% Confidence Interval") 
                  label(3 " "))
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-5 5 -10 -15, lcolor(white))  
            title("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections", size(4))
            subtitle(" " "Dependent Variable: Effective Number of Electoral Parties" " ", size(3))
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(3)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(3))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
        
*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(3.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 , labsize(3.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(off)
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-8 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6, lcolor(white))  
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(4)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(4))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white));
        

        
*translate @Graph c:\ajps\nineties.wmf;
       
*graph export  c:\ajps\nineties.eps, replace;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Conclusion:                                                     *;
*       At 95% level: Temporally-proximate presidential elections       *;
*       reduce the number of electoral parties when the number of       *;
*       presidential candidates is less than 2.6.  They have no effect  *;
*       when presidential candidates are greater than this              *;
*       At 90% level: Temporally-proximate presidential elections       *;
*       reduce the number of electoral parties when the number of       *;
*       presidential candidates is less than 2.8.  They have positive   *;
*       effect when presidential candidates are greater than 5.6.       *;
*       To change to 95% level change to 1.999.                         *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop JH conb conse a top bottom;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                 Figure for 1990s - established democracies            *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
 
regress enep1 proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg  if nineties==1 & old==1, robust;

generate JH=((_n-1)/10);

replace JH=. if _n>60;

matrix b=e(b); 
matrix V=e(V); 
scalar b1=b[1,1]; 
scalar b2=b[1,2];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1]; 
scalar varb2=V[2,2]; 
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3]; 
scalar covb2b3=V[2,3];
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*         Create full range of marginal effect                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conb=b1+b3*JH if _n<60;
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*           Create full range of standard errors                        *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*JH^2+2*covb1b3*JH)  if _n<60; 
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               Generate confidence intervals at the 95% level          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen a=1.684*conse; 
gen top=conb+a; 
gen bottom=conb-a;
set textsize 100;

*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(2.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 , labsize(2.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(col(1) order(1 2) label(1 "Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections") label(2 "95% Confidence Interval") 
                  label(3 " "))
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-5 5 -10 -15, lcolor(white))  
            title("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections", size(4))
            subtitle(" " "Dependent Variable: Effective Number of Electoral Parties" " ", size(3))
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(3)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(3))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white));
        
        
*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(3.5)) 
            ylabel(-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 , labsize(3.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(off)
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-8 -6 -4 -2 2 4 6, lcolor(white))  
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(4)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(4))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
       
*translate @Graph c:\ajps\nineties1.wmf;


       
*graph export  c:\ajps\nineties1.eps, replace;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Conclusion:                                                     *;
*       At 95% significance we have:                                    *;
*       Temporally-proximate presidential elections reduce the number   *;
*       of electoral parties when the number of presidential candidates *;
*       is less than 2.7.  They have no effect when presidential        *;
*       candidates are 2.8<presidential candidates<4.6. They have a     *;
*       positive effect when presidential candidates>4.5.               *; 
*       At 90% significance we have:                                    *;
*       Temporally-proximate presidential elections reduce the number   *;
*       of electoral parties when the number of presidential candidates *;
*       is less than 2.9.  They have no  effect when                    *;
*       2.9<presidential candidates<4.3. They have a positive effect    *;
*       when presidential candidates>4.2.  To get these results change  *;
*       `gen a=2.021*conse' to `gen a=1.684*conse`                      *;                        
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop JH conb conse a top bottom;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                       Now pooled models                               *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                       Whole Sample                                    *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

regress enep1 proximity1 enpres  proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg, robust cluster(country);

generate JH=((_n-1)/10);

replace JH=. if _n>60;

matrix b=e(b); 
matrix V=e(V); 
scalar b1=b[1,1]; 
scalar b2=b[1,2];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1]; 
scalar varb2=V[2,2]; 
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3]; 
scalar covb2b3=V[2,3];
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*         Create full range of marginal effect                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conb=b1+b3*JH if _n<60;
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*           Create full range of standard errors                        *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*JH^2+2*covb1b3*JH)  if _n<60; 
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               Generate confidence intervals at the 95% level          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen a=1.96*conse; 
gen top=conb+a; 
gen bottom=conb-a;
set textsize 100;

*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(2.5)) 
            ylabel(-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 , labsize(2.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(col(1) order(1 2) label(1 "Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections") label(2 "95% Confidence Interval") 
                  label(3 " "))
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-5 5 -10 -15, lcolor(white))  
            title("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections", size(4))
            subtitle(" " "Dependent Variable: Effective Number of Electoral Parties" " ", size(3))
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(3)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(3))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(3.5)) 
            ylabel(-6 -4 -2 0 2 4  , labsize(3.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(off)
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-6 -4 -2 2 4 , lcolor(white))  
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(4)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(4))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
*translate @Graph c:\ajps\whole.wmf;
       
*graph export  c:\ajps\whole.eps, replace;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Conclusion:                                                     *;
*       At 95% significance we have:                                    *;
*       Temporally-proximate presidential elections reduce the number   *;
*       of electoral parties when the number of presidential candidates *;
*       is less than 3.1.  They have no effect when presidential        *;
*       candidates are greater than 3.                                  *;
*       At 90% significance we have:                                    *;
*       Temporally-proximate presidential elections reduce the number   *;
*       of electoral parties when the number of presidential candidates *;
*       is less than 3.3.  They have no effect when there are more than *;
*       3.2 presidential candidates.                                    *;
*       To get these results change `gen a=1.96*conse' to               *;
*       `gen a=1.645*conse`                                             *;                        
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop JH conb conse a top bottom;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                       Established Democracies                         *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

regress enep1 proximity1 enpres  proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg if old==1, robust cluster(country);

generate JH=((_n-1)/10);

replace JH=. if _n>60;

matrix b=e(b); 
matrix V=e(V); 
scalar b1=b[1,1]; 
scalar b2=b[1,2];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1]; 
scalar varb2=V[2,2]; 
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3]; 
scalar covb2b3=V[2,3];
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*         Create full range of marginal effect                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conb=b1+b3*JH if _n<60;
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*           Create full range of standard errors                        *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen conse=sqrt(varb1+varb3*JH^2+2*covb1b3*JH)  if _n<60; 
set more off;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               Generate confidence intervals at the 95% level          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen a=1.96*conse; 
gen top=conb+a; 
gen bottom=conb-a;
set textsize 100;

*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(2.5)) 
            ylabel(-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 , labsize(2.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(col(1) order(1 2) label(1 "Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections") label(2 "95% Confidence Interval") 
                  label(3 " "))
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-5 5 -10 -15, lcolor(white))  
            title("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate Presidential Elections", size(4))
            subtitle(" " "Dependent Variable: Effective Number of Electoral Parties" " ", size(3))
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(3)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(3))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
        
*graph twoway  line conb JH, clwidth(medium) clcolor(blue) clcolor(black)
        ||  line top  JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  line bottom JH, clpattern(dash) clwidth(thin) clcolor(black)
        ||  ,   
            xlabel(0 1 2 3 4 5 6, labsize(3.5)) 
            ylabel(-6 -4 -2 0 2 4  , labsize(3.5))
            yscale(noline)
            xscale(noline)
            legend(off)
        yline(0, lcolor(black)) yline(-6 -4 -2 2 4 , lcolor(white))  
            xtitle(Effective Number of Presidential Candidates, size(4)  )
        xsca(titlegap(2))
        ysca(titlegap(2))
            ytitle("Marginal Effect of Temporally-Proximate" "Presidential Elections", size(4))
        scheme(s2mono) graphregion(fcolor(white)); 
        
        
*translate @Graph c:\ajps\established.wmf;
       
*graph export  c:\ajps\established.eps, replace;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Conclusion:                                                     *;
*       At 95% significance we have:                                    *;
*       Temporally-proximate presidential elections reduce the number   *;
*       of electoral parties when the number of presidential candidates *;
*       is less than 3.  They have no effect when presidential          *;
*       candidates are greater than 2.9.                                *;
*       At 90% significance we have:                                    *;
*       Temporally-proximate presidential elections reduce the number   *;
*       of electoral parties when the number of presidential candidates *;
*       is less than 3.2.  They have no effect when the number of       *;
*       presidential candidates is greater than 3.1.                    *;
*       To get these results change `gen a=1.96*conse' to               *;
*       `gen a=1.645*conse`                                             *;                        
*     ****************************************************************  *;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                                   THE END                             *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;


exit;
